Tuesday, March 6, 2012

What’s So Super About Tuesday

For starters, it is a Tuesday and this Tuesday is one with the biggest payout of the Republican presidential primaries or for one of the contenders. This time Super Tuesday had been slimmed down to half its 2008 size but still doling out one-third of the delegates needed to win and frankly at the end of the day; it probably won't settle much.

It might nudge the two long shots - Newt Gingrich out of the race or Ron Paul into a position of more credibility. Nor, in my opinion, will it give either Romney or Santorum a decisive advantage, because delegates are handed out by share. A close second in a state can pay off almost as well as first place. Romney might cement the front-runner status that keeps slipping through his fingers. Santorum could prove he's the real thing. To which I doubt either will be the case.

Delegates for grabs Tuesday: 419.
Delegates already won: 353; Romney, 203; Santorum, 92; Gingrich, 33; Paul, 25.
Delegates needed for the nomination: 1,144.

Let’s consider the expense involved. The heavy advertising in all 10 states would cost a candidate about $5 million. That's a lot even for Romney's well-financed campaign, prompting him to make a plea for donations amid his Michigan victory speech. Gingrich is getting another multimillion-dollar boost from Las Vegas billionaire Sheldon Adelson, who donated the money to a special type of political action committee, known as a super PAC that will run advertising in key states.

But my friends Ohio is the race to watch. Why I don’t know – maybe it’s like the Mississippi of the north. Nonetheless political junkies get all misty-eyed over this Rust Belt swing state, and not just because of the 63 delegates. No Republican nominee has ever become president without winning the state. That makes it a powerful proving ground for the men trying to show they can take on President Barack Obama.

It could well be Newt's last stand or Gingrich rises again. Either way – what a frightening thought! But for sure you can call the Sand Man with his hook Newt loses in Georgia, the state he represented in the U.S. House for two decades. Lest not forget, his is not on the ballad in Virginia! Newt hopes to win decisively here and pick up enough other delegates to relaunch his up-and-down campaign, which has been mostly down-and-out. There is a bright side or dark cloud - Herman Cain, a fellow Georgian, endorsed him. Oh, and he's got a new pitch, claiming he can bring the cost of gas down to $2.50 per gallon.

Then there’s grandpa, Ron Paul, the anti-war, libertarian-leaning, unorthodox Republican who hasn't won a single state. Super Tuesday could change that meaning he might win ONE! Let’s say – Alaska! Even if he doesn't score a win, he's likely to pick up delegates to help power him into this summer's Republican convention with enough clout to promote his ideas.

There's little drama in the Northeastern races. Romney's virtually unopposed in his power base of Massachusetts, where he was governor just over five years ago. Delegates: 38. He's expected to win neighboring Vermont handily, too, although Santorum seeks to peel away some of its 17 delegates.

Next up:

Caucuses and primaries in Kansas, Wyoming, Alabama, Hawaii, Mississippi, Missouri, Illinois and Louisiana fill out the busiest month of the nomination season. Three territories; American Samoa, the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico also get their say in March.

Well folks, as exciting as that may sound it seem to me I’d rather be clipping my toenails or picking nose hairs because that will be much more fun. We’ve all been taught to say, God Bless America; with this cast of characters I think that’s an understatement and we should say God Help Us.

And that’s my Thought Provoking Perspective…

"Just a Season"
Visit: http://johntwills.com/
Legacy – A New Season is Coming!
Listen to the author's interview!

No comments: